SOME CLARIFICATIONS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE:
Recently I have received some questions from my teen daughter about climate change and what it actually means. I realized, many of us don’t really pay attention because we assume, this will happen sometime in the far future.
However, even within this year, here in Netherlands we have already experienced some interesting variations of weather patterns. Summer weather was in April this year, and currently when it is supposed to be summer, we have spring weather.
Therefore, I feel that as an expert in development and as an environmentalist, it is necessary to clarify the issue of climate change for our own sake.
Climate change refers to the change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over long periods of time (from decades to millions of years). The change may be in terms of weather conditions or change in the distribution of weather events. Eg. extreme weather or non occurrence of previous weather events. Changes may be for specific regions or globally , there are different processes that cause climate change: natural causes eg. Ocean currents, planetary movements, unnatural causes by human activities.
The atmosphere of earth planet consists of two layers namely the troposphere and the stratosphere.
The lowest layer (zone for weather and climate) is the troposphere. The higher layer –stratosphere- is the zone whereby there is high radiation energy from the sun, which reacts with oxygen forming Ozone – an important gas that forms a protection layer which shields living things from most of the sun’s harmful ultra violet rays that can also cause skin cancer.
To understand some of the mechanism of the climate system, we look at the positive and negative feedbacks.
As the sunlight hits the planet, some of the energy is reflected back. The amount of reflection (albedo) depends on the features of the earth surface. Forests and oceans have low albedos, while i.e snow covered surfaces have high albedos.
The ocean capacity to absorb and store the energy, postpones the fast increasing global warming. ‘Feedbacks can occur in a system when the interactions between it’s component processes respond to a change of conditions. The interaction can either augment the original change (positive feedback) or reduce it (negative feedback)’
Positive feedback eg.
Greenhouse gasses i.e (methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, ozone) emissions to the atmosphere causing an increase of global temperature leading to extreme weather changes i.e drought, damaging vegetation and reducing forest cover (absorbs CO2), adds to global warming.
Negative feedback eg.
Industrial pollution increasing sulphate aerosols (a collection of tiny liquid or solid articles dispersed in a gas, such as water droplets or dust in the atmosphere - inside or outside clouds) in the atmosphere, will have a cooling effect to the atmosphere.
Feedbacks lead to cumulative climate change eg. Oceans absorbing heat, leads to rise of sea level due to thermal expansion, the heat continues to warm the waters at deeper levels spreading wider distances i.e Artic, melting ice caps adds to the rising sea level causing multiple impacts i.e floods, death of humans, damaging heat sensitive biodiversity eg. Corals, economic loss.
Increased temperatures also leads to increased evaporation affecting the climate patterns, eg. Extreme precipitation and/or extreme droughts affecting different individual regions in different ways. Some of the impacts may have a high probability of occurring but with low hazards, and vice versa, causing changes on social variables i.e some crops/animals may not be able to survive in maximum temperatures and this will have an impact throughout the food chain.
Climate models have been used by scientists from 1979 to calculate the operational climate system while estimating the possible future climates.
However, climate science lacks the accurate recordings of past millenniums to compare with modern occurring changes thus it is difficult to know if the changes observed are a natural trend occurring over long periods of time or specific for post-industrial era.
Climate science uses sample measures eg. Rainfall measurements: ‘..even with 5 gauges, the total area over which the rain is sampled is less than one square metre’. The measurements might also be affected by wind speed/direction and/or presence of obstructions eg. Buildings.
The various stages of climate models include developing scenarios of future world population including the number, technology used, economic activities, energy uses etc. Then making projections i.e how much pollution will be caused by the population, calculate the concentration in the atmosphere, then calculating how this will influence the climate system in terms of weather elements e.g temperature, precipitation and other components including the state of the ocean, ice and vegetation cover. Lastly, climate models analyse likely impacts based on the model state of the climate system predictions.
(unfortunatelly scientific models couldn't be downloaded)
As observed, the uncertainty of climate science is based firstly on the limitation of sample data, methods of obtaining data and different interpretations made by scientists. Secondly, if even one condition within a scientific model changes eg. Energy used, positive and preventive checks and/or government policies promoting environmental sustainability, the projections made by a particular scientific model become invalid.
This is why recent projections for global temperature rise by climate models show a wide range of temperature (between 1.4 °C – 5.8 °C) over the period of 1990 to 2100.
More information can be found in the book ‘Changing environments’, Edited by Dick Morris, Joanna Freeland, Steve Hinchliffe and Sandy Smith
Showing posts with label Netherlands. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Netherlands. Show all posts
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
‘THE UNWRITTEN HISTORY’
‘THE UNWRITTEN HISTORY’
By Stella Evelyne Tesha
I have always enjoyed stories. My grandfather from my mother’s side always told me stories about ancient African kingdoms, about slavery, about colonialism, about forced labor.
My grandfather from my mother’s side, was a good story teller. He lived to be 90.He lived during the time when the African tribal chiefdoms were functional, the various chiefdoms traded among themselves, there were traditional negotiations practices, and there were established customs, there were traditional doctors who healed by means of herbs and extractions from tree barks, roots, and or leaves.
These were the kingdoms that the colonialists termed as uncivilized.
My grandfather from my father’s side, died in 1945. During this period, many men died in their prime. If they did not die from tiredness as a result of forced labor, they died from broken hearts caused by slavery and exportation of their sons. With no sons left to carry on their names, no son left to continue with production, to take care of the families, the daughters, the wives, they foresaw no future. This was the beginning of poverty in Africa.
My father used to tell me, the colonialists had one very interesting trick called ‘divide and rule’. The ‘divide and rule’ practice pitted tribes against each other. Until today we see the result of this ‘practice’ from the Rwanda genocide.
When I was growing up I always looked at Europe as the source of all evil that is happening in Africa. The industrial revolution that ensured development of Europe and the welfare of European people, was a nightmare to Africa. We lost a lot! Until today many black people all around the world can not trace their ancestors. Until today, the daughters who had no support from their brothers and their fathers because they were either killed in sisal or sugarcane plantations or taken for slavery out of the country, are still suffering from the results of growing up as orphans. It is an obvious fact that if the head of the family is taken, if able bodied members of the society are exported, the society is weakened. And thus, Africa is still feeling the impact of the 19th century.
When I came to understand development work, I saw this as a positive contribution from Europe to repair the damage that was done to Africa by their ancestors. After all, Europe is still enjoying the fruits of labor and the blood of our ancestors.
Are there any grudges from Africa? Yes of course. You can see that from the reaction of Zimbabwe. We can all be angry about killings of innocent humans, but at some level we know it was just a matter of time before it happened.
Development aid has always seemed to me as ‘the right thing to do’. So I am very disappointed to hear that the Netherlands government has decided to cut down on aid.
Who will pay the price? We can’t foresee this now, but it won’t be the decision makers …naturally.
Development aid helps to uplift the grassroots societies of developing countries. Aid given for education, health, environmental management and others, contributes by building positive relationships between developing countries and the west.
In the past, we have looked at our history with Europe as ‘those are the ones who destroyed our continent’ wouldn’t it be nice if the history written by our grandchildren says ‘those are the ones who rebuilt the continent with us’?
Decision makers are not usually the ones who do the development field work. They don’t see the sufferings of hunger victims, they don’t experience the desperation of those who live with terminal diseases, and neither do they see the eyes of an orphan who foresees no future other than death on the streets. I could go on giving examples, but much information can be found on internet.
In my opinion development aid should not be cut down, but it should be more structured. We work in development and we are committed to UN development goals. Right now it is time to think of new strategies to accomplish the goals, it is not time to back out of the race. It is time to write a new history.
Enough is enough!
By Stella Evelyne Tesha
I have always enjoyed stories. My grandfather from my mother’s side always told me stories about ancient African kingdoms, about slavery, about colonialism, about forced labor.
My grandfather from my mother’s side, was a good story teller. He lived to be 90.He lived during the time when the African tribal chiefdoms were functional, the various chiefdoms traded among themselves, there were traditional negotiations practices, and there were established customs, there were traditional doctors who healed by means of herbs and extractions from tree barks, roots, and or leaves.
These were the kingdoms that the colonialists termed as uncivilized.
My grandfather from my father’s side, died in 1945. During this period, many men died in their prime. If they did not die from tiredness as a result of forced labor, they died from broken hearts caused by slavery and exportation of their sons. With no sons left to carry on their names, no son left to continue with production, to take care of the families, the daughters, the wives, they foresaw no future. This was the beginning of poverty in Africa.
My father used to tell me, the colonialists had one very interesting trick called ‘divide and rule’. The ‘divide and rule’ practice pitted tribes against each other. Until today we see the result of this ‘practice’ from the Rwanda genocide.
When I was growing up I always looked at Europe as the source of all evil that is happening in Africa. The industrial revolution that ensured development of Europe and the welfare of European people, was a nightmare to Africa. We lost a lot! Until today many black people all around the world can not trace their ancestors. Until today, the daughters who had no support from their brothers and their fathers because they were either killed in sisal or sugarcane plantations or taken for slavery out of the country, are still suffering from the results of growing up as orphans. It is an obvious fact that if the head of the family is taken, if able bodied members of the society are exported, the society is weakened. And thus, Africa is still feeling the impact of the 19th century.
When I came to understand development work, I saw this as a positive contribution from Europe to repair the damage that was done to Africa by their ancestors. After all, Europe is still enjoying the fruits of labor and the blood of our ancestors.
Are there any grudges from Africa? Yes of course. You can see that from the reaction of Zimbabwe. We can all be angry about killings of innocent humans, but at some level we know it was just a matter of time before it happened.
Development aid has always seemed to me as ‘the right thing to do’. So I am very disappointed to hear that the Netherlands government has decided to cut down on aid.
Who will pay the price? We can’t foresee this now, but it won’t be the decision makers …naturally.
Development aid helps to uplift the grassroots societies of developing countries. Aid given for education, health, environmental management and others, contributes by building positive relationships between developing countries and the west.
In the past, we have looked at our history with Europe as ‘those are the ones who destroyed our continent’ wouldn’t it be nice if the history written by our grandchildren says ‘those are the ones who rebuilt the continent with us’?
Decision makers are not usually the ones who do the development field work. They don’t see the sufferings of hunger victims, they don’t experience the desperation of those who live with terminal diseases, and neither do they see the eyes of an orphan who foresees no future other than death on the streets. I could go on giving examples, but much information can be found on internet.
In my opinion development aid should not be cut down, but it should be more structured. We work in development and we are committed to UN development goals. Right now it is time to think of new strategies to accomplish the goals, it is not time to back out of the race. It is time to write a new history.
Enough is enough!
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